Monday, 9 April 2012

The Great Reflation greatly compressed

A brief summary of the book.  Changes in the availability of money and credit drive financial markets, and the 2008 credit crunch was the biggest episode in history (even in inflation adjusted terms).  Use elements of value investing, momentum trading and market psychology to preserve and grow your capital.  Expect inflation and asset price volatility along the way.  Asset class breakdown: real estate will be below trend for years, precious metals are a speculative bubble the timing of whose bust is unknowable, the US dollar will lose value against a basket of currencies and stock and corporate bond markets are a decent bet.  In other words, a fairly conventional prediction.