Showing posts with label perpetuity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label perpetuity. Show all posts

Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Annuity. Perpetuity

There are two directions in which the formula for discrete compounding naturally goes.  One towards a limit of continuous compounding, and the other as a geometric series modelling the way that the quantity (for example, money) grows during the observation period.  

The idea of $e$ was implicit by 1614 in Napier's work on natural logs.  The use of $e$ as a constant was due to Euler in 1727 and he was explicitly setting it in the context of taking the compounding formula to the continuous limit.  Just as the idea of $e$ was beginning to be born, in 1613 Richard Witt published the first book dedicated to the maths of (discrete) compounding.

A geometric series has as its sum: $a(\frac{1-r^n}{1-r})$.  Notice here that $r$ is not a rate, but a growth multiplier - the equivalent in present value/future value analysis to $\frac{1}{(1+r)}$, where $r$ in that case is an actual interest rate.  An annuity can be modelled with this formula as long as we set the initial payout amount per period to be $a$ and the common ratio to be a present value formula, being sensitive to compounding. The idea is to realise that an annuity describes a series of evenly spaced cash payments into the future.  To work out how much each is worth, we'd like to present value them with a constant rate and a discounting period counter of $n$.

The annuity thus is a decent model for working our how valuable to you the coupon payments are.  With computers these days doing the hard work of iterating the cash flows, the alternative is just to loop over all the coupon payments, and to make the last payment to include the principal.  But in the days before computers, having mathematics do the hard work was a smart move.

So, for the $n$ periodic coupon payments $c$ on a bond, with the period return being the nominal discount rate $\frac{1}{(1+r)^n}$ , the series of payments $\frac{c}{(1+r)} + \frac{c}{(1+r)^2} + \frac{c}{(1+r)^3} \cdots \frac{c}{(1+r)^n}$ sums to $c(\frac{1-{\frac{1}{(1+r)}}^n}{1-\frac{1}{(1+r)}})$, or, bringing the $n$ down to the denominator, $c(\frac{1-{\frac{1}{(1+r)^n}}}{1-\frac{1}{(1+r)}})$

Finally, there's a limits exposition which shows that, in the case where $r<1$, as it usually is with discount factors, then the sum of a geometric series for an infinite number of steps is the surprising $\frac{a}{1-r}$. So far, again, $r$ is the discount factor and to make it into a rate you replace it with $(1+r)$ - the 1s cancel and you're left with $\frac{a}{r}$, where the $r$ is no longer a geometric series ratio, but a discount rate. This is the present value of a perpetuity.  

Ground rent is an example of a perpetuity.  If someone tells you the ground rent on a freehold is worth 15,000 for annual payments of 100, then they're telling you that the market rate to discount for that infinite flow of 100 payments, forever, is solved by setting $15000 = \frac{100}{r}$ which means $r=\frac{1}{150}$ or about 0.667% annualised.

Note how confusing it is to join together the maths of geometric series (a,r) with that for compounding (P,c,n,r) since in both of these worlds, by tradition, the choice of r can be semantically jarring, as they mean different things.  In geometric series maths, it represents a multiplier, and in compounding it represents the percentage growth (1+r).

Sunday, 21 December 2014

Forever

A very simple model of the firm's value is the dividend growth model, perhaps better called the dividends-with-growth model.  In it, a firm's value, market capitalisation, P, is given as next year's cash dividend divided by an appropriate discount rate minus a growth rate.  P=D/(r-g).

Separately, no longer in the world of equity but in the world of fixed income, if I chose to lend somebody money with a view never to get the principal back, only annual coupons, then the value of that infinite stream of coupons is a perpetuity, whose value is given by C/r, the coupon divided by an appropriate discount rate.

I just want to find a set of simplifying assumptions about the firm which unite these two valuations.  Imagine there are N companies in the world, and the average company produces a dividend stream D with an average corporate cost of capital (weighted average of all sources of funding for the average company) was r.  Let's further pretend that all N companies actually have this D,r set-up - i.e. you momentarily pretend there's no variation in the N companies.  In those N companies there'd be financial institutions too.  So they too have a weighted average cost of capital of r and a dividend yield of D.

Let's further pretend that the only line of business these financial institutions were in was making a market for perpetuities.  Namely that they only made loans or took money on the basis that they'd never get/give the capital back, merely that they participated in a perpetuities market.

You have some money and you want a return.  You look at the bank's perpetuity market making.This bank would not be wise, given the modern theory of value creation and destruction, to engage in any lending or borrowing activity which somehow didn't return at the very least the average corporate WACC, r.  So, ignoring bid ask spread, and the imposition of healthy profit margins, you'd expect your principal investment to be worth the equivalent in perpetuity coupon terms  of C/r, namely that you'd receive a regular annual payment, in today nominal terms, of C each year.

If companies in general were perfectly efficient then the growth component, g, of the dividend discount model might reduce in the limit to the expected long term inflation rate.  That is to say, in a fictitious super-competitive corporate environment, the only dividend growth would be inflation based.  So let's live in an inflation free world, where g=0 and no innovation occurs (at least with respect to these perpetuity banks).

The dividend yield is a fraction of capital made, on an annualised basis, by the firm.  So the only way in which D can be made is through the one line of business, namely perpetuity market making.  So in general it must make D on the bid ask spread, that is, it must transact a sufficient number of deals.  Assuming If no defaults ever happen and it lends out all of its capital it must charge in aggregate D as the perpetuity coupon. The tighter the actual bid ask spread, the wider must be its balance sheet.